Bruce is a quiet soul who loves numbers and has great attention to detail. He wears glasses, excelled in mathematics, and is introverted. His favorite book is East of Eden. He has two cats. Question: Is Bruce more likely a librarian or farmer? Probably more people would answer that he’s the former, given the description of Bruce and how this better seems to fit the (stereotypical) personality type of librarians. However, the inference is hasty because it fails to consider other relevant information. For example: What is the ratio of librarians to farmers in the population?
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Being Rational vs. Being Right: What the…
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Bruce is a quiet soul who loves numbers and has great attention to detail. He wears glasses, excelled in mathematics, and is introverted. His favorite book is East of Eden. He has two cats. Question: Is Bruce more likely a librarian or farmer? Probably more people would answer that he’s the former, given the description of Bruce and how this better seems to fit the (stereotypical) personality type of librarians. However, the inference is hasty because it fails to consider other relevant information. For example: What is the ratio of librarians to farmers in the population?